Trends in the development of solar power generation over the next 10 years
Apr 10, 2025
Trends in the development of solar power generation over the next 10 years
### 1. Technological innovation: Parallel progress in efficiency improvement and cost reduction
1. **Emergence of heterojunction (HJT) technology**
- Conversion efficiency exceeds 27%, cost reduction of more than 40%
- Low temperature coefficient and high weak light response become mainstream technology
2. **Breakthrough in commercialization of perovskite solar cells**
- Laboratory efficiency exceeds 26%, mass production target is 25%
- Efficiency improvement by tandem with crystalline silicon
3. **Accelerating spread of N-type batteries such as TOPCon and IBC**
- High efficiency and low degradation replace PERC
### 2. Market structure: Distributed and energy storage are driving growth
1. **Rapid growth of distributed solar power**
- Annual growth rate of residential solar power exceeds 30%
- "County-level promotion" policy promotes market expansion
2. **Standardization of solar power + energy storage**
- Market size to reach 500 billion yuan in 2030
- Demand for industrial and household energy storage surges
3. **Continuous expansion of overseas markets**
- Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are key regions
### 3. Policy-driven: Acceleration through carbon neutral targets
1. **China's 14th Five-Year Plan target**
- 12 billion kW cumulative solar power installation capacity by 2025
- Development model of "distributed main body, centralized subsidy"
2. **Strengthening global decarbonization policies**
- EU, US, etc. expand subsidies and tax incentives
3. **Promotion of green power trading and carbon market**
- Improved profits through solar green certificates and carbon trading
### 4. Progress in smartification: deepening digital and AI
1. **Rise of virtual power plant (VPP) model**
- Optimal control of distributed solar power using AI
2. **Application of digital twin technology**
- Optimization of power plant life cycle management
3. **Smart O&M and drone inspection**
- Big data + AI for failure prediction and maintenance cost reduction
### 5. Future challenges and opportunities
1. **Challenges**
- Impact of fluctuations in silicon raw material prices
- Need to improve the power grid's capacity
2. **Opportunities**
- New models such as solar + hydrogen and BIPV
- Global energy transition drives demand
### Conclusion: Outlook for the solar industry over the next 10 years
- **Technology**: HJT and perovskite lead the efficiency revolution
- **Market**: Distributed + storage are the core of growth
- **Policy**: Driving force: Global decarbonization goals
- **Smart**: Digital and AI transform the industry
- **Summary**: The solar industry is entering its golden decade! ^_^
